US home prices fell 4.5% in the third quarter from a year earlier, the sharpest drop since Standard & Poor's began its nationwide housing index in 1987. One of the index's creators, Robert Shiller, predicted a significant chance of a recession. "Over 50%. We're in the aftermath of the biggest housing boom in history, so how do we use historical data to judge the outcome? We're out of the range of the normal variation in the data, and I take that as very significant."
After 13 years of rising home values, the market has started to unravel.
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