Thursday, February 7, 2008

New Conforming Loan Limit

So what is it? Done, all but signed. Right? High cost areas to be mapped out, complicated mathematical calculations to be done. New conforming loan limits, up to $730,000. To be in effect, beginning July 1st and ending December 31st.

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Overseas Voting: Online

LONDON (AP) - Americans seeking a change in foreign policy and a new national image abroad flocked to churches in Rome, town halls in England and an Irish pub in Hong Kong on Tuesday to vote in a Democrats Abroad primary.

The voting will determine who gets the 11 votes allocated to Democrats Abroad at the Democratic National Convention in August. The group is allowing online voting—a first for voters overseas—that will continue for one week.

Porchester Hall in central London was jammed with high-spirited voters Tuesday evening as rival groups backing Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama chanted and waved banners for their candidates.

Republicans, meanwhile, made their Super Tuesday choices known through absentee ballots and predicted their party would unite behind whomever is nominated and keep control of the White House.

Most Democrats abroad focused on the razor's edge contest between Clinton and Obama.

"I'm voting for Hillary. I'd like to see a woman in the White House," said Alison Kurke, who was first in line to vote at the American Episcopal Church of St. Paul's in Rome. "I think she can hit the ground running. She's got the experience, she's got the brains."

But James McGuire, a 24-year-old Web site developer from Massachusetts who traveled to Rome from the Umbrian town of Orvieto, favored Obama.

"I think it's one of the most important in years," he said of the 2008 election. "If we do not get Barack Obama in the presidency, then we will have two families for over 20 years in the American political system. And I think that's unacceptable."

Americans voting overseas on Super Tuesday said they were particularly influenced by the candidates' foreign policy credentials. Democrats said they wanted a president who would steer the U.S. away from the Bush administration's foreign policies, which have alienated many allies.

"We need a dramatic change in tone and tenor, and we need someone who truly, genuinely understands other cultures and can project that to the world," said Clifford Aron, 50, a businessman from Brooklyn who lives in Warsaw, Poland.

Turnout for the Democrats Abroad primary was expected to be high and results will be announced later this month.

Robert Bell of Democrats Abroad in Canada said he voted online. He expects a record turnout in Canada, in part because of the online option. He said an independent company is managing the online vote.

"It's quite secure," Bell said. "Each participant who is on our database is given a random number with which they can access this third party site and then they have to sign in with the particular information that they would know, so I feel it's quite secure."

Because of unreliable mail service in certain countries, many Democrats were excited about using the Internet to be sure their vote would be counted, said Christine Schon Marques, the International Chair of Democrats Abroad.

Daniel Wolf, a composer from California who has lived in Germany and Hungary since 1989, said voting online was a "real success" for him after years of difficulties with absentee ballots.

Wolf said he often had trouble getting his ballot in for elections, including in 2000 when his ballot didn't arrived in Budapest at all, despite phone calls to his voter registrar.

"It's clear and fast and you can print out a hard copy of your ballot," Wolf said in an e-mail to The Associated Press from Frankfurt.

Voters who cast their ballot online went to the http://www.votefromabroad.org Web site by Jan. 31 to request an online ballot. There, information such as the voter's former stateside address was requested. Once authenticated, the voter received a pin or ballot number.

Harvey Manning, a New York city native who has lived in Canada since said he found the process to be user friendly and secure.

"When the ballot appeared I clicked the box for the one I voted for and printed it out. That was it," he said.

But Mary Wilson, president of the League of Women Voters, warned that the new system could lead to confusion in the general elections when online voting is not an option.

"They're creating this new system for voting in the primaries outside of the system that will be used in the general election," said Wilson. She said voters must not forget they need to fill out absentee ballots for the general election.

Republicans Abroad did not have live or online voting. Republicans Abroad U.K. chairman Miki Bowman conceded the Democrats seem more energized now but predicted this would change after the candidates are chosen.

"I think our candidates are much less polarizing than the Democratic candidates and we're confident whoever gets nominated has the likelihood of winning the presidency," she said.

Mary Jo Jacobi, a longtime Londoner and former adviser to Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, predicted the GOP would get a lift if Clinton is nominated.

U.S. voters who want to vote in the primaries of their home states may do so by absentee ballot, with the deadline for voting varying from state to state. For most Super Tuesday primary states, the deadline was Tuesday.

Risk of property defaults

There is a growing risk of defaults on loans on commercial property this year, in a trend that could spill over into tumbling values and create more jitters in the credit world, analysts and bankers warn.

US property companies that took out big short-term loans to finance acquisitions in the past couple of years at low-interest rates are now struggling to refinance this debt, as banks curb lending and commercial property prices fall.

In recent days, Harry Macklowe, the New York developer, has failed to refinance $5.8bn in short-term loans he used to buy seven Manhattan office towers from Equity Office Properties last February. Deutsche Bank, which provided the loan, has taken control of the buildings and will put them up for sale, a person familiar with the matter said.

Analysts warn of a pattern that could spread. US commercial property prices have fallen 10 per cent in some markets since August, after rising more than 90 per cent since 2001, according to Real Capital Analytics.

“For [recent] loans coming to maturity this year . . . it will be very difficult to acquire refinancing,” said Sam Chandan, chief economist at Reis, a property re-search company.

Signs of growing stress also exist in the UK commercial property sector. Tomorrow, UK group British Land is expected to announce a sharp writedown in the value of its commercial property. The Bank of England highlighted its unease in its recent quarterly bulletin, noting that “commercial property prices fell sharply” in recent months, and “returns on commercial property slowed significantly”.

Most analysts think the scale of problems building in the commercial property sector are far smaller than in the subprime loans market. However, if the sector produces tangible losses this year, this will be deeply unwelcome for banks and investors in commercial mortgage-backed securities

One area of concern revolves around property companies that have taken out floating rate loans in the past couple of years.

This year $22bn out of a total $38bn in outstanding floating rate CMBS is coming due, according to Wachovia Capital Markets data, of which $2bn faces the greatest risk of default because it has a final maturity this year with no option to extend.

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Monday, February 4, 2008

Microsoft & Yahoo

Microsoft bid $44.6 billion for Yahoo last Friday. The bid still needs approval by Yahoo and regulators. The proposed merger brims with potential. Yahoo would bring legions of loyal users of its Internet e-mail, chat, search, news, shopping and dating services. Microsoft would contribute engineering prowess and its deep presence in home PC's and corporate servers. By joining forces, the companies could reach 86% of US Internet users and control 59% of the online display ad market.

Yahoo and Microsoft.

Net Income: Yahoo $751 million, Microsoft $14.1 billion.
Employees: Yahoo 14300, Microsoft 79000.
Market Capitalization: Yahoo $38 billion, Microsoft $283 billion.

Super Bowl 42 - The Ads

1. Budweiser - dalmatian trains Clydesdale to make beer wagon team.
2. FedEx - FedEx beats giant carrier pigeons.
3. Bridgestone - Critters scream with squirrel missed by car.
4. Doritos - Giant rat goes for guy's bag of chips.
5. Bud Light - Fire breather heats up romantic dinner.
6. Bud Light - Men sneak beer into wine and cheese party.
7. Coca-Cola - Cartoon character parade balloons go after Coke Classic.
8. Diet Pepsi Max - Star studded cast stops dozing.

The key to a top-ranked Super Bowl Ad? The Top 4 all involve animals.

Friday, February 1, 2008

Top Box Office for 2008?

Which of these 16 - will earn the highest domestic box office in 2008?

The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
Sex and the City: The Movie
Mamma Mia!
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystall Skull
The X-Files
Star Trek
Quantum of Solace
Iron Man
The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor
Madagascar: The Crate Escape
Speed Racer
The Incredible Hulk
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Day the Earth Stood Still
Journey to the Center of the Earth

NFL Dynasty

Head Coaches of the 3 Top Teams - records over a similar amount of time (7 years).
  1. Bill Belichick, New England 2000-2007, 91-37, 71%, 14-3 in playoffs, 3 titles.
  2. Bill Walsh, San Francisco 1979-1986, 69-51-1, 57%, 7-3 in playoffs, 2 titles.
  3. Chuck Noll, Pittsburgh 1969-1976, 65-46-1, 58%, 8-3 in playoffs, 2 titles.

Quarterbacks of the 4 Top Teams

  1. Tom Brady 2000-2007 Patriots, 86-24, 14-2 playoffs, 26370 yards, 197 td's, 4 pro bowls, 3 titles
  2. Joe Montana 1979-1994 49ers/Chiefs, 117-47, 16-7 playoffs, 40551 yards, 273 td's, 8 pro bowls, 4 titles
  3. Terry Bradshaw 1970-1983 Steelers, 107-51, 14-5 playoffs, 27989 yards, 212 td's, 3 pro bowls, 4 titles
  4. Troy Aikman 1989-2000 Cowboys, 94-71, 11-4 playoffs, 32942 yards, 165 td's, 6 pro bowls, 3 titles
1994, Robert Kraft bought the New England Patriots for $172 million. The team had never won a home playoff game. After his relationship with then coach Bill Parcells fizzled, and a three-year stint with Pete Carroll ended. Kraft traded a first-round pick to the New York Jets to secure Belichick - a moved he calls "the best deal of my life." In his first draft, Belichick picked Tom Brady, a University of Michigan star. Without Brady, Belichick was 42-58, including postseason. With Brady, he's 100-26. The franchise is currently valued by Forbes at $1.2 billion. A one-billion dollar increase in value over 14 years.