Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Iron Man

Opening weekend box office of $98.6 million. The film scored the 2nd highest grossing debut for a non-sequel behind Spiderman.

Fresh off Iron Man's imposing performance at the box office, Marvel Studio announced four new comic-book movies. Including an Avengers film that will team Iron Man, Hulk, Captain America and Thor.

The lineup includes....

Iron Man 2, April 2010.
Thor, June 2010.
The First Avenger: Captain America, May 2011.
The Avengers, July 2011.

Plus, Ant-Man, with no release date yet.

The Incredible Hulk, with Edward Norton, is due June 13th, 2008.

BnB, Sentence of the Week

When nobody has your back, you gotta move your back.

Sunday, May 4, 2008

Warren Buffett

May 3 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett, chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said the global credit crunch has eased for bankers, and the Federal Reserve probably averted more failures by helping to rescue Bear Stearns Cos.

``The worst of the crisis in Wall Street is over,'' Buffett said today on Bloomberg Television. ``In terms of people with individual mortgages, there's a lot of pain left to come.'' Buffett was interviewed before the Omaha, Nebraska-based company's annual meeting, attended by about 31,000 people.

Buffett, the world's richest man according to Forbes magazine, said the Fed acted properly when it arranged a $2.4 billion buyout in March of New York-based Bear Stearns by JPMorgan Chase & Co. The billionaire said he turned down the opportunity because he lacked enough capital and time to craft a solution. More failures and wider panic may have resulted if the regulators didn't halt the run on Bear Stearns, he said.

``The worry was that there would be contagion; it was a very real worry,'' Buffett said. ``If Bear Stearns had gone, the next day, somebody else would have gone. It could've been a very, very, very chaotic situation.''

Buffett, 77, said he was contacted in March before JPMorgan, the third-biggest U.S. bank by assets, agreed to buy Bear Stearns. The person calling him, whom he wouldn't identify, was ``someone responsible'' and wasn't from the Federal Reserve or the Treasury. The call lasted about half an hour, Buffett said.

Too Big for Buffett

``As I understand it, Bear Stearns had $65 billion due on Monday and I didn't have $65 billion,'' Buffett said. ``I couldn't get my mind around that situation in the required time.'' New York-based JPMorgan was the right buyer for Bear Stearns, he added.

Berkshire had about $35 billion in cash as of March 31, according to a regulatory filing yesterday.

JPMorgan agreed in mid-March to acquire Bear Stearns, once the fifth-biggest U.S. securities firm, after customers grew concerned about the company's health and pulled out their money, leaving Bear Stearns short on cash. JPMorgan, which got financial support from the Federal Reserve, raised the purchase price a week later to $10 a share from $2 to mollify Bear Stearns shareholders who said they weren't getting enough.

The 24-company KBW Bank Index has advanced 14 percent since the Bear Stearns bailout was announced in March, and the 11- company Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index has climbed 30 percent.

Credit Losses

In a question-and-answer session at the shareholder meeting, Buffett said that from a risk perspective, some banks got ``too big to manage.''

The world's largest banks and investment firms have recorded more than $300 billion of losses and writedowns tied to mortgages, bonds and loans.

Berkshire's own investment in derivative contracts recovered $500 million to $600 million of lost value since the end of March, Buffett said. The company will make ``significant money'' on the derivatives over the long term, he said at the meeting. Berkshire said yesterday the value of the investments had declined by $1.7 billion in the first quarter. The entire company's quarterly profit plunged 64 percent to $940 million.

Buffett is scheduled to embark on a four-city European trip this month to scout potential acquisitions, including family- owned companies. He has been investing in China, Israel and the U.K. to spur profit growth after saying that U.S. investments meeting his criteria have become scarce.

International Earnings

``Over time we'd like to develop more international earnings,'' Buffett said. ``If it's a $2 billion deal, fine; if it's a $20 billion dollar deal, fine.''

Buffett, who made his first non-U.S. acquisition in 2006, paying $4 billion for 80 percent of Israel-based Iscar Metalworking Cos., said he can't predict the location of the next company Berkshire will acquire.

``They can come from Europe, they can come from the United States, you just never know,'' he said. ``Somebody, someplace is going to have a situation where we fit. They're going to call me; I want to make sure I'm on their radar screen.''

Buffett said during the meeting he'd like to buy businesses in India and China, and that he wanted to acquire one or two non- U.S. companies in the next three years. He is looking as competition forces down insurance rates in the U.S. for Berkshire, which typically gets about half its profit from insurance units including National Indemnity, General Re Corp. and Geico Corp.

The U.S. dollar will keep weakening and Buffett feels ``no need to hedge'' against currency risk when buying large companies outside the U.S., he said.

Landing From Mars

``If I landed from Mars today with a billion of Mars dollars, or whatever they call them on Mars, and I was thinking about where to put my money,'' he said. ``I don't think I'd put the entire billion in U.S. dollars.''

Berkshire Hathaway has spent $4 billion investing in the municipal auction-rate bond market, taking advantage of payouts that topped 10 percent after regular bidders fled the market. Markets were so disrupted, Buffett said, that bonds from the same issue were selling simultaneously from the same broker with yields of 6 percent and 11 percent.

Berkshire has risen about 22 percent in New York Stock Exchange composite trading during the past 12 months and gained about 4,700 percent in 20 years through Dec. 31, about six times more than the Standard & Poor's 500 Index including dividends.

Buffett took shareholder questions for more than five hours on dozens of issues.

Other topics Buffett addressed include:

-- There's ``no guarantee'' Berkshire Hathaway won't be a buyout target after his death, though such a takeover is unlikely.

-- He said he's in good health because of his diet, ``some Wrigley, some Mars, some See's, some Coke.'' Berkshire this week committed $6.5 billion to help finance candy company Mars Inc.'s takeover of Wm. Wrigley Jr., the world's biggest maker of chewing gum. Berkshire owns See's Candies and is the top shareholder of Coca-Cola Co.

-- He doesn't support a push for companies or countries to boycott the Olympics in China based on that country's human rights record.

-- He would buy shares of PetroChina Co. again if they are at a level he considers cheap, Buffett said. Berkshire sold a stake in the company last year.

-- Factories in China have different norms for working conditions than those in the U.S., and he won't ``tell the world how to run'' their businesses.

Fed Funds Rate

• 4/30/08: CUT of ¼% to 2%

• 3/18/08: CUT of ¾% to 2.25%

• 1/30/08: CUT of ½% to 3%

• 1/22/08: EMERGENCY CUT of ¾% to 3.5%

• 12/11/07: CUT ¼% to 4.25%

• 10/31/07: CUT ¼% to 4.5%

• 9/18/07: CUT ½% to 4.75%

• 6/29/06: UP ¼% to 5.25%

• 5/10/06: UP ¼% to 5%

• 3/28/06: UP ¼% to 4.75%

• 1/31/06: UP ¼% to 4.5%

• 12/13/05: UP ¼% to 4.25%

• 11/1/05: UP ¼% to 4%

• 9/20/05: UP ¼% to 3.75%

• 8/9/05: UP ¼% to 3.5%

California Home Price Decline

The California Association of Realtors is forecasting that the median price of a California house will fall 24% this year to $424,000 — a price not seen since 2003.

In March, CAR was forecasting a 9.5% price drop statewide, to $505,100. The median price of an existing single-family house in California has been above $500,000 since 2005.

“This 24% decline just has no precedent,” said CAR Deputy Chief Economist Robert Kleinhenz, who delivered CAR’s latest forecast today at the annual expo at the Disney Hotel by the Pacific West Association of Realtors. He said afterward that association economists still are unsure how much the median home price will fall this year. The 24% drop is CAR’s best figure at this point, he said.

Here are CAR’s median price figures for existing single-family homes:

Year Price Vs. 06
2000 $241,350 11.0%
2001 $262,350 8.7%
2002 $316,130 20.5%
2003 $372,700 17.9%
2004 $450,770 20.9%
2005 $524,000 16.2%
2006 $556,640 6.2%
2007 $558,100 0.3%
2008* $424,000 -24.0%

*Forecast / Source: California Association of Realtors

Kleinhenz repeated earlier CAR predictions that the number of home sales in California may have bottomed out and are starting to pick up in recent months. CAR forecasts that 332,100 single-family homes will sell this year, down 6% from last year. Sales peaked at 625,000 house sales in the state in 2005, CAR figures show.

“I know I’m the bearer of bad news. I’m just trying to give you a sense of how we got here,” Kleinhenz said. “The housing market fundamentally needs one thing to move forward, and that’s jobs.”

Other highlights from Kleinhenz’ presentation:

  • The market will bottom out sometime later this year, with the latter half of 2008 stronger than the first half.
  • Foreclosures represent about 2.2% of all home loans in the state. “It’s not like everybody’s losing their house. Still, we have a huge number of distressed properties on the MLS, and it’s driving prices down. So it’s not like it’s not a problem.”
  • Adjustable-rate mortgage resets peaked in late 2007 and early 2008. Hence foreclosures likely will peak later this year and decline in 2009.
  • “We do think this is the year we’re going to see our low point for sales. … Monthly sales have already bottomed out.”
  • “All these numbers are going to stabilize and slightly improve. … We’re basically climbing above the liquidity crunch to pre-liquidity numbers.”

Saturday, May 3, 2008

Berkshire Hathaway - 1st Quarter 2008

Reported $1.7 billion in unrealized derivatives losses. However, the company believes the contracts that led to the losses will "prove profitable over the 15-20 year periods they cover, but could lead earnings to swing widely because of reporting rules."

FIRST QUARTER 2008
  • Investment Gains.....$115 million
  • Insurance Underwriting.....$181 million
  • Insurance Investments.....$802 million
  • Non-insurance businesses.....$894 million
Share Price: $133k

What's Subprime's Magic Number?

No one really has a clue how much money will be lost on subprime mortgages. Estimates range from $400 billion to $1 trillion and more. The banks, hedge funds and insurers whose financial futures depend on those final numbers are focusing most intensely on monthly data on delinquencies, housing prices, interest-rate resets, and the "roll rate", which shows how many borrowers are falling further and further behind on their payments.

"Right now, we're still right in the middle of it, and so you have enormous variation using very small differences in assumptions about what's going to happen", says Jay Brown, chiefs executive of MBIA, Inc - a bond insurer that sold protection on mortgage-linked bonds, and took a write-down of more than $3 billion in 2007.

For typical subprime mortgages issued between the second half of 2005 and the first half of 2007, when underwriting standards were at their weakest, between 25% and 40% of borrowers on average are more than 60 days behind on their payments.

Nearly 15% of subprime borrowers who took out mortgages in 2006 were 60 days late within a year. It took nearly twice as long for loans from 2000 and 2001 to look that bad. Overall, the number of delinquencies is still rising each month. Will the loans follow the same path as in previous years? In 2000 and 2001, the growth in the 60-day delinquency rate slowed when those subprime loans were about three years old and peaked after a little more than four years, then started to fall.